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Andy Gibson Files P & P Team Files Stable Block files top 10 chases 2010 Free Example File File Archive
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 From now until Cheltenham I will be offering my thoughts on the best of the weekends action. My 'Guide To The Weekend' will be free to view on the front page in the section below  and will be available every week from late Friday afternoon.  
 
 
ARGENTO CHASE – GRADE 2

 

The late withdrawal of Grand Crus from the race has certainly taken some of the sparkle away from the contest. Nevertheless, we still have a Grade Two Chase with at least three contenders for whom connections will retain some aspirations for Gold Cup glory in March. Realistically, the chances of the winning horse here prevailing in March are slim at best. As things stand the front three in the betting for the Blue Riband event will be difficult to beat as a group and the best that connections of the likes of Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert could hope for is to pick up some valuable prize money or, perhaps even pinch a place. Captain Chris could possibly have more to offer but he will certainly have to improve on his achievements thus far and also prove he has the stamina for this sort of test.

 

At the start of this season, an each way price for Time For Rupert in the Argento Chase would have looked unthinkable. Sadly, a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then and in his three runs this season he has failed to recapture the sparkle he showed in his first two novice chases. Of course, it may just be that this is as good as he is and the level of his form is in keeping with the generally underwhelming performances of last year’s novice chasers as a whole. His connections will, no doubt, hope that this return to Prestbury Park will bring about enough improvement to see him go close here. This is a distinct possibility, but at 4/1, not one I would like to bet on.

 

I am yet to be convinced by Diamond Harry’s form round Cheltenham; his tendency to lug left up the hill has to go down as a negative as does his interrupted preparations this season. He is another with some sort of a chance in a race which is more open than the betting suggests, but with those negatives against his name his price of 7/2 is just too skinny for me. Captain Chris is another one for whom things have not gone as smoothly as they could have done this season. In his favour is his form at the track when winning the Arkle Chase, but for a horse yet to prove his stamina and possibly better on a right handed track he cannot be a betting proposition at a best priced 3/1.(He is as short as 9/4 in a place)

 

Midnight Chase has some excellent course form to his name and has arguably less negatives to overcome than the three horses above him in the betting. He will front run, acts round Cheltenham and definitely stays the trip. He holds reasonable each way claims at 13/2 in a race where one or two of the principles could easily disappoint.

 

To conclude, Midnight Chase has the most solid credentials of any for the Argento Chase and his front running style will also be of great interest to many in running players. Tidal Bay has place chances as has Knockara Beau who has some excellent course form in his profile, will be suited by the likely end to end pace and has an excellent chance of picking up a few pieces should one or two of the fancied horses fail to show their ‘true running’. He has a very good chance of running past plenty of beaten horses up the hill and is, therefore, far too big at 33/1 in a race which could easily fall apart.

 

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE – GRADE 2

 

The likely favourite for this race according to official ratings is Broadbackbob who is currently available at 20/1 for the main event of the same name in March which suggests that, as competitive a race as this appears to be and unless we have a runaway winner, it may not end up having too much impact on the ante post market for the festival.

 

Nevertheless, Broadbackbob sets a really decent standard having acquired form with Cinders And Ashes over an inadequate two miles as well as having easily beaten a really solid yardstick in Carrigmorna King over further. With Barry Geraghty already booked one assumes that he is a probable runner and, even with his penalty, he appears likely to be very competitive.

 

Batonnier apparently surprised Alan King when finishing second behind Barbatos on New Year’s Day over course and distance. He plugged on gallantly up the hill that day but this is a better standard race and he will have to improve again. Two lengths back in second came the Tom George trained Forgotten Gold who has now posted three excellent runs over hurdles this season. His trainer remains in the best of form, he led for a long way last time and would benefit from a fast pace here. He should run well again but it would be disappointing if something wasn’t good enough to beat him in this Grade Two contest.

 

If I had to pick one horse out it would be the Warren Greatrex trained Knight Pass who won a competitive Kempton handicap off a mark of 125 on Boxing Day. He showed an excellent turn of foot that day before running around in front on the approach to the last. He appeared fairly green that day, is still lightly raced and I would be hopeful that there is plenty of improvement to come. He disappointed on the soft ground the time before so any rain between now and Saturday would not be in his favour. However, if the ground remains good to soft at worst I would not be at all surprised to see him turn out to be the strongest challenger to Broadbackbob.

 

SUNDAY – LEOPARDSTOWN

 

ARKLE NOVICES’ CHASE – GRADE 1

 

Blackstairmountain beat Notus De La Tour in a close finish over course and distance in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase on Boxing Day. It would be no surprise to see the two of them fight out the finish again in the Arkle Chase today. Foildubh was back in third that day and may be better suited to the predicted heavier ground which could help him close the gap on the two that beat him last time.

 

Flemenstar has made most of the running to win his last two chases at Navan and Naas respectively. His presence in the field could be an advantage to Blackstairmountain who may benefit from tracking Flemenstar and Notus De La Tour as they both fight it out for the lead. Willie Mullins has a good line on the form for this race because his horse Lambro gave Flemenstar a real race last time out before being worn down close home. Blackstairmountain was rated a long way clear of Lambro over hurdles and his Grade One entry here suggests that he is rated the better of the two over fences.

 

All in all this looks like a good opportunity for Blackstairmountain to pick up another Grade One Chase although his price of about 7/4 would not be of too much interest. His main rival Notus De La Tour has English form which strongly suggests he is well below the class of the first few in the betting for the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. Therefore, even if Blackstairmountain wins well here he is unlikely to make too much of a splash in the market for that contest.

 

IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE – GRADE 1

 

Hurricane Fly is a best priced 4/7 to win the Irish Champion Hurdle for the second year in a row. He has won 11 out of 13 career starts over hurdles and has won his last six contests in a row, all Grade One races and including the Champion Hurdle and, of course, this event last year. According to those stats one could argue that his current price is actually quite generous. When a horse is trading particularly short it is even more important than usual that we take the time to explore any negatives in his profile.

 

When making his seasonal reappearance over the last three years it is fair to say that Hurricane Fly has appeared to be a little more vulnerable than in his other races. In 2008 he beat Donnas Palm by a neck, the following year he met defeat for the one and, thus far, only time on Irish soil when defeated by both Solwhit and Muirhead and, finally, last season he beat Solwhit by one and a half lengths on his first start before following up by beating that same rival much more easily in his next two races. Now clearly there will have been other factors at work in creating those results; nevertheless, if we were keen to oppose him, now would be the time, particularly as he has only recently been pleasing his trainer in his work and also because 29th January is a really late start in the season for him compared to previous years.

 

Of the opposition, nothing will beat the favourite if he runs to form so any support for one of the other horses would be dependent on Hurricane Fly having an off day. Unaccompanied won well from Thousand Stars and Oscars Well over course and distance last time out and the bookmakers prefer her chances of coming out on top again. I am open minded on that score myself as I think that Thousand Stars could improve by being ridden more prominently this time. Of those three the one most inconvenienced by the small field is probably Oscars Well who I believe will be better suited to the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle in March. That is not to say he could not perform well here; it is just that, in my opinion, whatever he achieves here he is likely to improve upon in March with a bigger field and probable faster pace.

 

The likeliest outcome of the Irish Champion Hurdle is for Hurricane Fly to come out on top; however, if he is to be beaten here then he is just as likely to be beaten by more than one of three closely matched opponents. For this reason, if I was considering opposing him today I would prefer a more speculative approach by playing the others in the forecast market. If Hurricane Fly runs well and is beaten, I would not necessarily mark him down for Cheltenham; therefore, given that scenario, I will be keeping a close eye on the ante post market for the Champion Hurdle.

 

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