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Glorious Goodwood – Professional views – 30th July 2010

 

 

2.10

Duncan provides the standout piece of recent form courtesy f his second place behind Harbinger in the Hardwicke but this is a horse who isn't straightforward and it looks as though he's been priced up too much with Harbinger's recent exploits in mind. Cavalryman ran poorly at Ascot last time but his general profile is of a very consistent horse and he wouldn't be the first to bomb out at that track before returning to form. He had shaped well on his previous run at Epsom and as a Group 1 winner who has placed in an Arc and drops down in grade, he looks overpriced at a top priced 13/2.

 

This appears to be a good race to get involved with. Duncan and Cavalryman look to have, broadly speaking, similar claims. The difference in the betting is due to the former’s latest run behind Harbinger and the latter’s disappointing effort last time out. If we ignore their last performances, on the balance of evidence, there should not be a lot between them today. Any horse that has run Harbinger so relatively close is pretty much guaranteed to be overbet in the market at the moment. The strong bet is Cavalryman each way.

 

2.45

Nothing really strong here but Bagamoyo, We Have A Dream and Kings Wonder are all leading players on my speed figures.

 

Possibly a small bet for me here. When a horse’s unbeaten run has come to an end with a resounding defeat, the old cliché about ‘the handicapper now has his measure’ is often rolled out. As a consequence, the horse in question will often be overpriced. This appears to be the case with Kellys Eye. There are potentially many other variables at work in scenarios like this. Consequently, and bearing in mind what a difficult race this looks to be, he is worth a small each way investment at 25/1, particularly now he is back racing on an easy track.

 

3.25                                   

On the face of this, this is a hugely competitive handicap but historically the
draw has been a very significant factor in the outcome of this race. This would tend to limit the chances of Ransom Note (drawn 5) and Signor Peltro (6), though the latter's course record of 1 win and 3 placed efforts from 4 runs would be of some interest given that he is a confirmed hold up performer. Invisible Man won the Royal Hunt Cup last time out and is well drawn in 17 but finished a 31 length last of 9 on his only visit to Goodwood
and there is the suspicion that he is much better suited by a stiffer track.
Charlie Cool has been in fine form this year but has been well beaten on both of his runs at this track (all 8 of his wins have been on flat tracks).
Mahadee's best form has been on the all weather, though he has won his last 2 runs in minor events on turf (the latest on in the Stewards room) and this will be his first run for Ralph Beckett. Sea Lord has been very progressive,
winning 4 of his last 5 starts including a very competitive 20 runner handicap
at The Curragh on his penultimate start and has been given  a good chance from his 16 draw. Al Muheer's best form has been at 7f and is unlikely to be able to take any advantage from his 20 draw as he usually needs to be held up. Acrostic is a difficult horse to win with for allhis ability and is probably vulnerable again off a career high mark and a moderate draw (11). Oasis Dancer won a hugely valuable sales race at Newmarket last autumn and won a decent handicap over 8f at the same course this spring before
unsurprisingly being outclassed by Canford Cliffs in the Irish 2000 Guineas.
This is more realistic and he is of some interest from his 19 draw.

 

Oasis Dancer obviously has good credentials but is far too short for my liking. I have backed Marajaa and Tartan Gunna ante post and whilst I wouldn’t back Marajja at it’s current price, I still think there is some value left with Tartan Gunna at 20-1. Mark  Johnston has a very good record with horses carrying headgear for the first time, as demonstrated with Laa Rayb who won  this race last year and with this horse who won wearing blinkers for the first time at Newcastle. The blinkers are now replaced with a visor but the way he won at Newcastle over a mile that day left me thinking that he could win another top class handicap at this distance. I thought Aspectus is slightly overpriced at 25-1as he was contesting group races earlier in his career and looked like he needed a couple of runs to put him right. He looks likely to get a clean run being a prominent runner from his good draw and if the ground has no jar (part of the course run on fresh ground today) then he could run better then his price suggest. Past performances do suggest he doesn’t want he ground too fast. I did have a look at Spectait who has a good record round here but is not well drawn although his price of 40-1 does compensate that negative to a certain extent.

 

I will be having a decent bet on Sea Lord here. Two ways I might play it. A) Back him on the exchanges and put in a pre set lay for about 3.1 or B) back him each way at 13/2. He is well drawn and almost certain to be prominent with 2 furlongs to go. The dangers are the obvious two in, Oasis Dancer and the badly drawn Ransom Note. If the latter was better drawn I would be backing him as well.

 

4.00

I think Libranno is far too short here bearing in mind that the main form horses in his race at Newmarket ran below form, and for all that you have to respect the Hannon juveniles, he's far too short for me. Marine Commando looks to have an excellent chance uped in trip following his win at Royal Ascot (did extremely well to win that day given his passage through) and I'm backing him alongside Satin Love who may only have won a small runner event at Hamilton but he did it well, despite greenness and should have an awful lot more to offer. Johnston's juveniles tend to be pretty good when they win first time up (particularly if that win happens to come at Hamilton) and if you look at the figures, this horse produced a debut performance on a par with anything the others did on their first run. He's also got an exellent pedigree.

 

5.15

Jacqulin Quest is a lovely looking filly but I have to quesion her attitude given the way she has hung both in the Guineas and wen third in the Coronation last time. Bearing in mind the nature of this track, it's reasonable to think she may do so again here so for all she's the form pick on her last two runs, I'm happy to take her on. Tabassum is the other standout on form, but that's her juvenile form and she showed very little on her return. Golden Stream is one I considered but she ran poorly on her only previous visit here so that's the concern. Instead I think there's great value in backing Tropical Paradise each-way. I accept that she might just not have the class to win here, but her level of form isn't that far short of the level usually required to win this event and she's proven round here.

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